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What Counts as a Clinton "Win?"

LibertySugar — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 12:00:37 -0800

Super Tuesday, on February 5th, was supposed to be the day the Democratic nominee emerged. Instead, absolutely nothing changed. Today could be decisive, but I still get the feeling neither candidate is ready to call it quits.

Today, Hillary has a chance to break her 11-state losing streak. If she does well, and closes in on the delegate count, Obama's momentum could be irrelevant.But Obama doesn't see it that way. On Monday, his campaign manager, David Plouffe, wrote in a memo to reporters: "While the Clintons gamely continue to try to move the goal posts, at some point there has to be a reckoning."How far can the goal posts be pushed back and where does the field end? In such a tight race, under what circumstances (if any) should Clinton, now the underdog, exit the race?Source

What Counts as a Clinton "Win?"

Double digit wins in Ohio and Texas, or she's toast.

It's all about the delegates. If she gets a lot, she has to stay in.

She needs to break the streak and win at least one state.

Superdelegates make up 40 percent of the total. This is going to the convention!

The Democratic party is being torn apart. She should drop out now!

Fight on! Regardless what the media says, this isn't over.

Other. I'll tell you in the comments.

Lighten Up: The Case of the Invisible Ink

LibertySugar — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 15:00:22 -0800

Amid tales of Floridians showing up to vote on Super Tuesday — a full week late for their state's primary — and Obama's "girl" not showing up at all, there's this invisible ink voting snafu out of Chicago.

Election officials in Chicago investigated the claims of "magic" invisible ink pens to mark ballots, and concluded that it was "just utter stupidity." It's quite the Super Tuesday fiasco . . .

Super Tuesday Ballot: Your Results!

LibertySugar — Thu, 07 Feb 2008 03:00:59 -0800

Many of you played pundit, and took a guess as to who would win six of the biggest contests on Tuesday. Here's how the Sugar predictions* matched up to the actual results.

Massachusetts:

Sugar Prediction: Obama and McCain
Actual Winner: Clinton and Romney

California:

Sugar Prediction: Obama and McCain*
Actual Winner: Clinton and McCain*

For the rest of the results,

Headline: Democratic Race Not Over, Plus Republican Surprises!

CitizenSugar — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 09:25:40 -0800

Now that the dust has settled from yesterday's primaries, the real work can begin — figuring out what to make of all results! Here's what I'm noticing so far:

In what I'm calling the "Wild West Stampede to the Center," it looks like states that usually vote Blue in the general election went for McCain last night (California, Illinois, New York) while Obama nabbed Red States (Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota). Does this mean that Democrats are more liberal in conservative states and vice versa? Or does it mean that we're hungrier for a middle ground than we think?
Obama took more total states, while Hillary grabbed more delegates. In a race of numbers, which counts more toward momentum? Are people so glad that their vote has an impact in this primary that they're eager to keep the race alive? If the decision does go all the way to convention, how will the sharply divided Democratic party gather strongly behind the eventual candidate?
Huckabee? Huckabee! Regardless of the perceived popularity of his campaign, he's running a wildly successful campaign against those in the media who were too quick to declare him DOA. Mitt Romney's bottomless campaign wallet and Huckabee's shoestring fueled talk of a two-man race between Romney and McCain, dismissing Huckabee altogether. Huckabee claimed about as many states as Romney did last night, sending Romney into intense discussions about the future of his campaign. As Huck said last night, "You know, over the past few days, people have been trying to say this is a two-man race. You know what? It is. And we're in it!" Was the biggest loser last night the media? Are conservative voters not sold on Mitt Romney?

However your candidate fared yesterday, it was a big victory for voters! Turnout was up — and we've got a lot of campaign left!

Source

Super Tuesday by the Numbers

LibertySugar — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 00:00:52 -0800

So the nominations aren't exactly decided, even after Super-Duper Tsunami-rageous Tuesday Extravaganza-palooza! But, here's a simple delegate projection:

Democrats 2,025 Needed:

Hillary Clinton 845

Barack Obama 765

Republicans 1,191 Needed:

John McCain 613
Mitt Romney 269
Mike Huckabee 190

Check out the New York Times interactive election guide for an extensive breakdown of who won what.

Source

Awaiting Results: We're Beyond Excited

CitizenSugar — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 16:04:49 -0800

Okay, the polls will be closing momentarily and the results will be pouring (or trickling?) in. We'll be updating our exclusive results chart as the night goes on, so check back here and see how your candidates do.

In the meantime, longhorn_sugar tipped us off to this: Google Maps will be updating and mapping the results combined with Twitter text messages from across the country all night!

Source

Where I'm Clicking Now: VoicesWithoutVotes.org

CitizenSugar — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 15:15:34 -0800

With all of the stories pouring in about people voting in the US, I was delighted to find this site: VoicesWithoutVotes.org. A project of Global Voices in association with Reuters, the goal of this awesome site is to "open a window on what non-Americans are saying in blogs and citizen media about US foreign policy and the 2008 presidential elections."

Gathering up and featuring blog entries from India to Algeria to Iraq, the global perspective is a crucial and dynamic part of our political discourse. I'm going to start reading this post from India about Super Tuesday and explore the rest of the global bazaar of ideas while we wait for results to come in!

Super-Duper Tsunami-rageous Tuesday Extravaganza-palooza — Update

LibertySugar — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 14:30:22 -0800

Mike Huckabee is projected to win all 18 West Virginia delegates at the state's GOP Convention. The former Arkansas governor beat his Massachusetts counterpart after delegates for John McCain defected to his side. Huckabee is Super Tuesday's first winner. — Washington Post
Both the Clinton and Obama campaigns are playing down expectations today. Clinton's strategist, Mark Penn, said that because none of today's races are winner take all, the fight will continue past Tuesday. — The Washington Times
In the last week, John McCain has surpassed even Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the amount of news coverage he has received. The media effectively anointed McCain as the Republican frontrunner after he won Florida. — The New York Times
Super Tuesday apparently caused confusion for many voters in Texas. More than 1,000 calls poured into the Bexar County Elections Department on Monday from voters wanting to know where they could vote in Tuesday's primary. Problem is — Texas isn't holding a primary today. — KSAT
Increased voter registration and some long lines early Tuesday pointed to a record turnout for presidential primary contests. — CNN

Source

Wanna See McCain Sing? Obama Dance? Amazing.

CitizenSugar — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 13:02:48 -0800

So you read our serious opinions this morning . . . now here's the real reason we're voting for our candidates. They're hot, hot, not-to-be-believed singer/dancers. Behold. It's glorious.

"Papa can you hear me?" Nope. Laughing too hard.

My Missouri Exit Poll

LibertySugar — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 12:34:06 -0800

I keep hearing about how Missouri is a bellwether state, almost always choosing the winning presidential candidate. The state combines Southern and Midwestern culture and has both rural and urban populations. So, I decided to do some sophisticated polling and call my grandparents who live in Saint Louis.

My grandma (Nana, 81) voted for Hillary. She says that Hillary would "hit the road running" as president and change things instantly. Nana thinks that Hillary knows the ropes and the right people, and after "eight years of bad influence" that's what we need. My grandpa (Papa, 87), a World War II veteran, really wants Hillary to win, too!

My polling data also indicates that John Edwards's late exit may influence the Missouri election. My grandma's sister voted absentee for Edwards a while back, and wishes she could change her vote to Hillary! What a bummer.

And finally, the weather is not so great in the bellwether state. My grandma says there are thunderstorms in Saint Louis, which may keep people away from the polls. I guess we'll just have to wait and see!

Source

Check This: Expats Vote Live, By Mail, and Online

LibertySugar — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 12:02:13 -0800

Americans living abroad have a voice this primary season. While both Democrats and Republicans can participate in their home state by casting an absentee ballot, the Democratic party got creative this year, launching the Democratic Global Presidential Primary.

Those who preregistered with Democrats Abroad will be able to vote online. Voters will get secure online voting "credentials." The Michigan Democratic Party has been using the same system since 2004.

International voters can also go to special polling places. The Democratic spots are open to anyone with an American passport, including Republicans and independents, and voting is open until Feb. 12. Click here to get a list of the center locations.

Democrats Abroad has been awarded 22 delegates that will be proportionately distributed based on voting results at the Democratic National Convention.

A global presidential primary seems like a great idea! Americans living abroad are impacted by US foreign policy every day, and I am happy their voices will be heard. I also think online voting is a great way to increase participation. But, I wonder if it is more susceptible to fraud.

Do you wish we could all vote online?

Source

Do Celebs Influence Your Politics?

CitizenSugar — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 11:30:18 -0800

We're not the only ones with vote fever today! Even Diddy is out spreading his political message. Celebs from Robert DeNiro to Garrison Keillor are also declaring their support for candidates this week. And of course who can forget Oprah for Obama, Chuck Norris for Huckabee, and Stallone for McCain? But here's the question: Does the opinion of the famous influence your vote? Interestingly, according to a recent survey in US Weekly, 90 percent of respondents said "no!" All of the Oprahs and Chuck Norrises in the world don't matter a lick once the voting booth curtain is closed. What about you?Source

Do Celebs Influence Your Politics?

Yes. Celebrities who endorse are usually informed — I take their opinions seriously.

No. Who a celebrity votes for has no bearing on my decision.

American Apparel Endorses McCain, Obama, and V-Neck Tees

CitizenSugar — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 11:30:17 -0800

Non-sweatshop, hipster fashion house, American Apparel slipped on a snug baby-tee and vintage-inspired gym shorts to endorse candidates! They've endorsed John McCain and Barack Obama "because of their honesty on the issue of immigration, the most significant civil rights concern the country has faced in 50 years."

Hillary Clinton didn't make the cut. Why?

We appreciate Senator Clinton's campaign on many fronts, but when it comes to the issue of immigration she has not shown the same strength and conviction as Obama. This was clear during last week's California debate. While he supports driver's licenses for undocumented workers, she is opposed "at this time." Tell that to a mother of three in East LA driving her children to school every day. Obama has also pledged to accomplish immigration reform in his first year; Clinton has not made such a commitment . . .

IMMIGRATION REFORM NOW!

American Apparel states very specific reasons for their choices. Do you agree with them? Do you consider the politics of a company before you buy?

Poll: Do You Vote With Your Gut?

LibertySugar — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 11:03:23 -0800

Scientific research suggests that we vote with our guts. In other words, our voting decisions are impacted more by anxiety and enthusiasm than by reason or logic. If we can identify with a candidate, we are more likely to vote for him or her.

According to Newsweek, most people have "cognitive-processing limitations" — meaning we cannot or will not learn about and remember candidates' records or positions. Um, whatever. I have a feeling it has more to do with the fact that politicians tailor their message depending on which crowd they're speaking to — or perhaps it's a result of the 24-hour news circuit, which replays irrelevant gaffs or tears over and over again.So if we're not conducting detailed policy analysis, and political party affiliation doesn't matter in primaries, how do we chose a candidate? This year, issue positions aren't much of a help, because the candidates don't differ that much (making my decision that much more difficult!!). So, we're left with the personality factor. Various scholars contend that we choose the candidate that we identify with, or that makes us feel good. The article offers this priceless example from the 1976 primaries.
While campaigning in Texas, Ford ate, or tried to eat, a tamale without first removing its corn-husk wrapper. He nearly choked on it. Mexican-American voters inferred from this — reasonably — that Ford didn't know much about them or their culture, and that it therefore made sense to pull the lever for Reagan.

So, how many of you vote with your gut?Source

Poll: Do You Vote With Your Gut?

Me! When positions are so close, I vote for the candidate that inspires me.

Not me! A candidate's record and position got my vote today.

Maybe. So many things factored into my vote, it's hard to tell.

Other— I'll tell you in the comments.

Lighten Up: Does John Stewart=McCain? Who Created Huckabee?

CitizenSugar — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 10:30:02 -0800

My head is spinning, though it might be the "transitive property of Huckabee." Say who, what now? If on the first day Colbert created Huckabee, did Conan create Colbert? Who cares, it's hilarious.

All on one stage, Colbert, Stewart, Conan — madness! And I'm not going to lie — clothing is removed. Okay, it's a belt and a shoe, but still . . . check it out!

(Also, either Conan's a giant or Jon Stewart shops in the little boy's department. . . . So cute.)

Check This: Does a Little Hypocrisy Make a Good Candidate?

CitizenSugar — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 10:00:16 -0800

Honest, trustworthy, not a "flip-flopper" — they're all qualities we think we prize in a candidate. But what if a little dose of hypocrisy actually makes a candidate stronger? This piece in the Boston Globe yesterday floats a new campaign slogan, "Vote Hypocrite!" Here's why:

"Hypocrites, in constructing an electable persona for themselves, are clearly demonstrating that they understand their personal limitations. They recognize the need to adapt what they happen to believe to what is politically prudent. So it's possible to see hypocrisy as evidence of politicians who will do what they say once in office because they set no special premium by their private preferences."

The original hypocrites, ancient Greeks wearing masks on stage, meant someone who was hiding their true identity. In modern politics, we think of the mask as the barrier between a politician's public pronouncements and how he or she conducts their private affairs. We then prize a lack of hypocrisy because it reassures us that once a candidate is elected he'll do what he promised. Here's how it might be foolish to court an Honest Abe,

Quiz Nation! Super-Duper Tsunami-rageous Tuesday Extravaganza-palooza

LibertySugar — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 09:02:31 -0800

After today we'll know whether the races for the Republican and Democratic nominations are effectively finished or if they'll go on for weeks, months, or until Wolf Blitzer drops dead.

In that spirit, take this quiz to test your Super Tuesday IQ.

Source

Super Tuesday 2008 Ballot: Who Will Win the Big Races?

CitizenSugar — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 13:46:49 -0800

Get in the election spirit and take a guess as to who will win six of the biggest contests on Tuesday. Who do you think will sweep Massachusetts, California, New York, Arizona, Utah, and Tennessee? At this point, your guess is as good as the pollsters!

Source